Haystyle

It was really good to listen to a selection of experts in the banking, economic, and political sectors last week. Whilst each individual had something unique to say, it was when you put together their messages that the prognosis for the future starts to become clear…

Danny Quah of the London School of Economics (LSE) was fairly optimistic about the Global perspective. His colleague Howard Davies was more pessimistic and took a UK perspective to explain why the UK has a harder position to recover from than some other European states, why the size of the USA bail-out will take years to recover from, and how loss of tax revenues from the banking sector will extend the period needed to pay of government debt incurred. Gillian Tett of The FT explained how a group of bankers on a brainstorming away-day in Boca Raton had invented the derivatives market which caused the banking sector crash, and why she feels we haven’t yet learned that the system needs changing, why politicians who do not understand the complex financial instruments being used today are struggling with regulation, and why the fiscal stimulus package designed to encourage banks to return to the old ways of lending will fail. Finally, whilst listening to Paddy Ashdown talking about Global politics it became clear that in the current UK political crisis we do not currently have politicians who have the insight, vision and morale values to lead the UK out of the mess we are in, and which is much worse than current budget forecasts suggest.

Danny Quah of LSE

Howard Davies' European Economic Outlook

Gillian Tett of The FT

Paddy Ashdown talking about Global Politics

Unfortunately, for me at least, when these messages are brought together I can only see a gloomier picture than politicians and journalists are painting, and I am beginning to understand the enormity of the crisis we have to dig ourselves out of – one that will take more than this generation can achieve…